Expectations, Probability and Uncertainty This article highlights the need for actuaries to rethink how they approach expectations, contrasting traditional expectation theory with insights from neuroscience. Instead of relying on fixed probabilities, the author advocates for focusing on "suppositions"—beliefs shaped by current and past knowledge—given the dynamic nature of uncertainty. The piece suggests that integrating concepts from category theory and possibility theory could improve models of risk, reflecting the complexity of human decision-making. By recognizing that event spaces evolve, actuaries can better understand future economic behaviors. You can find the full article here | 
